Projection Bias

Freakonomics is alive and well!  I have a soft spot for papers with titles that are puns:

"WEATHER TO GO TO COLLEGE"
ABSTRACT
Does current utility bias predictions of future utility for high stakes decisions? Here I provide field evidence consistent with such Projection Bias in one of life’s most thought-about decisions: college enrolment. After arguing and documenting with survey evidence that cloudiness increases the appeal of academic activities, I analyse the enrolment decisions of 1,284 prospective students who visited a university known for its academic strengths and recreational weaknesses. Consistent with the notion that current weather conditions influence decisions about future academic activities, I find that an increase in cloudcover of one standard deviation on the day of the visit is associated with an increase in the probability of enrolment of 9 percentage points.

I already knew those crazy people across the pond spell analyze as "analyse."  I did not know, however, that they spell enrollment as enrolment.  That's crazy!

One thing I like about this paper is that it documents that there is a correlation between weather and willingness to study.  That makes the (otherwise "cute") findings more plausible.

Comments

[marjory]

Is that why I always seem to attend universities in Boston, where the school year correlates well with the worst weather?