College football kicks off tonight. I will be rooting for The Ohio State University to win the national championship this year.
I'm also in a competitive betting pool with my brother and his friends for the first time. This economics paper is guiding my strategy:
Efficient markets in college football are tested over a 25-year period, 1976-2000. The market in general is found to be efficient, but betting on underdogs of more than 28 points violates a fair bet. The strategy of betting home underdogs reveals stronger results. Home underdogs of more than seven points are found to reject the null hypotheses of a fair bet over the last 10 years of the sample, 1991-2000. Home underdogs of more than 28 points are found to reject the null of no profitability during the same time frame.
Hawaii is a 21-point underdog at home tonight (against USC). Go Rainbows!
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